Hundreds of thousands of Russian troops are amassed on the Ukrainian border, thousands of American soldiers are being deployed to neighboring countries, feverish diplomacy taking place on both sides of the Atlantic. Are we standing on the precipice of war, or is something else going on?

This is not the first time in the 21^st century that Russia has threatened Ukraine. In 2013, protests erupted in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev following the government’s decision to back out of integrating more deeply with the European Union. After a failed attempt to end the protests, the Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych fled the country in early 2014.

A month later, Russian troops moved into Ukraine, seizing the Crimean region, citing a desire to protect Russian nationals and Russian speakers living in the region. A referendum was held in which Crimean voters opted to join the Russian Federation, although the referendum was deeply suspect (Herszenhorn, D., 2014).

Since 2014, an uneasy stalemate has existed with flareups in violence. Most notably, to those outside of the conflict zone, was the accidental downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 by Russian backed separatists, killing all 298 passengers (Clark, N., Kramer, A., 2015).

Since then, Ukraine has been a point of contention in US/EU/Russian relations. The United States and its NATO allies have sought to shore up Ukraine’s defensive capabilities with the sale of weapons, while imposing heavy sanctions on Russian individuals and companies, meanwhile, Russia has engaged in cyberwarfare against Ukraine, leading to billions of dollars in damages (Council on Foreign Relations).

In the spring of 2021, Russia amassed troops at the Ukrainian border, but this 2022 buildup seems different. Unlike in 2021, this time the Russian buildup includes the necessary support systems for an invasion, like large stores of ammunition, field hospitals and fuel (Matthews, D., 2022).

However, while there was widespread support in Russia for the annexing of Crimea, all-out war with Ukraine is seen much less favorably. Generally, Russians view their Ukrainian neighbors in friendly terms, with 66% of young Russians viewing Ukraine favorably, despite an enormous surge in anti-Ukraine propaganda (Kolesnikov, A., 2021).

According to Mark Galeotti, a professor at the University College London and a expert on Russia, this lack of public support in Russia is unsurprising. He views this potential conflict as in the interest solely of Putin and his friends and advisors. In his view, these are people who truly felt violated by the collapse of the Soviet Union and view the western world as hostile powers that are trying to prevent Russia from being a world power. Putin, according to Galeotti, is deeply concerned with how he will be viewed in the future, is bored with his job, and is increasingly surrounded by paranoid advisors (Matthews, D., 2022).  

Putin’s demands seem to be a promise that Ukraine will not join NATO, essentially keeping Ukraine vulnerable to Russia for the foreseeable future. He further wants NATO to shrink by abandoning members who have joined in the last few decades, specifically Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. As Russia is heavily sanctioned, the West has very few tools to punish Putin should he instigate an invasion (Matthews, D., 2022). The most damaging action western powers could take would be to halt the flow of fuel from Russia to Europe, which, understandably, Europeans have very little desire to do (Matthews, D., 2022).

Perhaps the most likely thing to give Putin pause is the strength and capabilities of the Ukrainian military (Salama, V., Marson, J, 2022). While the military would likely be unable to defeat Russian forces on the battlefield, Russia could find itself facing a protracted, costly insurgency (Reuters (A), 2022). In fact, the President of the United States has hinted that a Ukrainian insurgency would find support from the United States (Cooper, H., 2022).

At this particular moment in time, a flurry of diplomatic activity is underway. This week, President Emmanuel Macron of France paid visits to both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. In Washington D.C., German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with President Biden. US officials have voiced concern that Russian buildup is now at the point where an invasion could happen as soon as this week (Harden, et al., 2022), while the Ukrainian Foreign Minister has sought to strike a less-fatalistic assessment, saying, ‘Different capitals have different scenarios, but Ukraine is ready for any development.’ (Reuters (B), 2022).

Delicate negotiations continue, and hopefully cooler heads will prevail.

References:

Clark, N., Kramer, A. (2015). Malaysian Airline Flight 17 Most Likely Hit by Russian-Made Missile, Inquiry Says. The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/14/world/europe/mh17-malaysia-airlines-dutch-report.html

Cooper, H. (2022). US Considers Backing an Insurgency if Russia Invades Ukraine. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/14/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden-military.html (paywall).

Council on Foreign Relations. (n.d.). Conflict in Ukraine. www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine

Matthews, D. (2022). ‘It’s not about Russia. It’s about Putin’: An expert explains Putin’s endgame in Ukraine. Vox. https://www.vox.com/22917832/vladimir-putin-ukraine-military-invasion.

Harding, et al. (2022). Macron hopes for ‘historic solution’ to Ukraine crisis ahead of Putin meeting. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/07/macron-hopes-for-historic-solution-to-ukraine-crisis-ahead-of-putin-meeting.

Herszenhorn, D. (2014). Crimea Votes to Secede From Ukraine as Russian Troops Keep Watch. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/17/world/europe/crimea-ukraine-secession-vote-referendum.html (paywall).

Kolesnikov, A. (2021). How do Russians Feel About a War with Ukraine? Carnegie Moscow Center. https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/86013.

Reuters (A). (2022). Factbox: How Ukraine’s armed forces shape up against Russia’s. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/how-ukraines-armed-forces-shape-up-against-russias-2022-02-01/.

Reuters (B). (2022). Ukraine foreign minster urges people to ignore ‘apocalyptic predictions’. https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-foreign-minister-urges-people-ignore-apocalyptic-predictions-2022-02-06/.

Salama, V., Marson, J. (2022). Ukraine’s Bulked-Up Military is Still Outgunned by Russia. The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-bulked-up-military-is-still-outgunned-by-russia-11643286624 (Paywall).

~ The views represented in this blog post do not necessarily represent those of the Brandt School. ~